A gambler made close to half a million dollars after placing bets on the arrest of Venezuela’s ousted president, Nicolás Maduro, shortly before the development was officially announced, raising concerns over possible use of insider information.
Data from Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, showed a sudden spike in bets predicting that Maduro would be removed from office by the end of January, just hours before United States President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been captured.
One account, created last month, reportedly placed four bets focused solely on Venezuela and earned more than $436,000 from an initial stake of $32,537.
The bettor’s identity remains unknown, as the account is linked only to an anonymous blockchain address.
According to Polymarket figures, the probability of Maduro leaving office stood at 6.5 per cent on the afternoon of Friday, January 2, before rising to 11 per cent later that night and surging in the early hours of January 3, shortly before Trump’s announcement on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to enquiries on the unusual betting activity, which has since attracted the attention of US lawmakers.
Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a non-partisan financial reform advocacy group, told the BBC’s US partner, CBS: “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.”
Reports also indicated that several other users on the platform made tens of thousands of dollars from wagers linked to Maduro’s capture, further fuelling scrutiny of prediction markets.
On Monday, New York Democrat Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced a bill seeking to bar government employees from trading on prediction markets when in possession of “material nonpublic information” related to a wager.
While prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have grown rapidly in popularity, especially during the 2024 US presidential election, critics note that the platforms operate under lighter regulation compared with traditional stock markets, despite prohibitions on insider trading being clearly stated by operators.