A data-driven forecast ahead of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations has placed hosts Morocco at the top of the contenders’ list, according to projections generated by Opta’s supercomputer.
The model, which simulates thousands of tournament scenarios, suggests home advantage and squad quality could play decisive roles when the competition kicks off.
Morocco’s profile stands out in the analysis. Ranked 11th in the latest FIFA standings and buoyed by a historic fourth-place finish at the 2022 World Cup, the Atlas Lions are given the strongest probability of lifting the trophy.
Opta’s simulations assign them a 19.1 percent chance of winning the title, the highest among all participants.
Moreover, Morocco’s depth across key positions strengthens their case. Captain Achraf Hakimi anchors a squad that includes creative midfielder Brahim DĂaz, versatile full-back Noussair Mazraoui and experienced goalkeeper Yassine Bounou.
A football analyst familiar with the data noted that “Morocco combine elite-level experience with tournament momentum, which the model tends to reward.”
North Africa dominates the upper tier of the predictions. Egypt, Africa’s most decorated nation, emerge as second favourites with a 12.4 percent chance of glory.
Although the Pharaohs have not won AFCON since 2010, the presence of Mohamed Salah and in-form forward Omar Marmoush keeps expectations high.
Observers believe another deep run could hinge on whether Egypt’s stars peak at the right time.
Algeria closely follow with a 12.0 percent probability, as the 2019 champions seek a third continental crown.
Their rivalry with Morocco adds further intrigue to the projected knockout stages, especially given the narrow margins separating the leading teams.
Meanwhile, Senegal are positioned between Egypt and Algeria as the third favourites. Winners in 2021 and finalists in two of the last three editions, the Teranga Lions remain a consistent force.
According to Opta’s projections, their recent tournament pedigree keeps them firmly in contention despite increased competition.
However, the model indicates a notable drop after the top four. Nigeria, runners-up at the 2023 tournament, are rated fifth with a 7.3 percent chance of winning AFCON 2025.
Despite the attacking firepower of Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, the Super Eagles are viewed as outsiders compared to the leading quartet.
Hence, while the supercomputer underscores Morocco as the team to beat, it also highlights the competitive depth of African football.
As one Opta researcher put it, “Probabilities guide expectations, but AFCON’s history shows that narratives can change quickly once the first ball is kicked.”