Nigeria’s fiscal outlook has come under renewed scrutiny after the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, revealed that the federal government has achieved only a fraction of its 2025 revenue projections, contradicting earlier claims by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
President Tinubu had publicly declared that the administration met its 2025 revenue target months ahead of schedule, insisting that improved non-oil earnings had reduced the country’s dependence on borrowing to fund the budget.
Speaking during an interactive session with the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning, however, Edun painted a different picture, warning that revenue performance remained significantly below expectations.
The meeting focused on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper submitted to the National Assembly for approval.
According to the finance minister, the government projected ₦40.8 trillion in revenue to finance the ₦54.9 trillion 2025 “budget of restoration,” which was designed to stabilise the economy, enhance security, and rebuild prosperity. Actual inflows, he disclosed, are now expected to close the year at roughly ₦10.7 trillion.
“Based on current trends, federal revenue for the full year will likely end around ₦10.7 trillion, far below the ₦40.8 trillion target,” Edun said, stressing that the gap poses serious challenges for fiscal planning.
He attributed the shortfall largely to weak oil and gas earnings, particularly lower-than-anticipated receipts from Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax paid by energy firms.
Moreover, Edun noted that several non-oil revenue streams also underperformed, further tightening government finances.
As a result, the minister disclosed that the federal government resorted to borrowing about ₦14.1 trillion within the year to plug the widening funding gap.
“Borrowing became unavoidable in order to keep essential government obligations running,” he said.
The disclosure has reignited debate over Nigeria’s revenue assumptions and borrowing strategy, raising fresh questions about the sustainability of public finances as lawmakers review the medium-term fiscal plan.