Since 2020, soldiers have seized power or tried to seize it in nine West African countries with five nations now run by military juntas.
In just the past three weeks, Guinea-Bissau fell to a successful coup and Benin escaped one by hours. This is not chance. Something real is driving young officers to act.
The hard facts are clear. Between 2020 and today there have been 13 known coup attempts in West Africa. Seven worked, six were crushed.
Five countries remain under military rule: Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and now Guinea-Bissau. In the ten years before 2020, the region saw zero successful takeovers. Now, in just five years, West Africa has become the world’s coup capital.
The frequency of these takeovers has shifted global diplomatic attention. The African Union, European Union, ECOWAS, and the United States have all issued strong condemnations, yet their strategies have failed to deter further coups.
Sanctions, travel bans, and regional isolation appear to have lost their power to intimidate military leaders determined to recast their nations in their own narrative.
Why soldiers believe they are the solution
Every time soldiers go on television they repeat the same lines; Politicians stole everything, terrorists are burning villages and the army has no bullets.
“We are here to save the country”. In places like Mali and Burkina Faso, those words are not just excuses; jihadists really do control half the land and the populace cheered the soldiers when they arrived, at least in the beginning.
Decades of poor governance, vanishing public services, and leaders who remain in power through constitutional manipulations have created fertile ground for uniformed intervention.
The idea of the barracks becoming a route to national salvation has embedded itself in the public psyche, not because military rule is admired, but because civilian administration is widely viewed as irredeemable.
Some officers now present themselves as revolutionaries rather than usurpers, a narrative that resonates where political elites have failed to deliver tangible progress.
Old alliances collapse, new powers arrive
Old allies are leaving and new ones are landing. France once kept thousands of troops across the Sahel. After the coups, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger threw the French out.
Russian planes started coming in. Men from Wagner, now called Africa Corps, guard gold mines and train soldiers. Gold flows one way, guns the other. The Russians don’t lecture about elections.
This geopolitical shuffle transforms the region into a new arena of influence projection. The Sahel, historically central in the anti-terrorism playbook of Western powers, is fast becoming a laboratory for alternative governance, security outsourcing, and opaque military agreements.
The consequences are long-term. A generation of officers will be trained under strategic partnerships rooted not in democratic accountability but in transactional security. This may redefine power relationships long after the juntas have left office, if they leave at all.
Youth frustration fueling the fire
Half the people in West Africa are under twenty with jobs being almost impossible to find while the same old presidents win every vote.
On TikTok, X, Facebook and WhatsApp, young people watch a 30-year-old captain become head of state overnight. For many, that looks faster and fairer than waiting another decade for a change that never arrives.
Youthful optimism collides with harsh realities: inflation is choking economies, agriculture depends on unpredictable rainfall, and global industries rarely feed opportunity back into local communities.
By the time a graduate secures their first job interview, a coup leader has secured the presidency.
Social media, unfiltered, unregulated, and often unverified, is becoming a political education system of its own. In the digital age, coups have become content.
Coup attempts now part of political playbook
Take Benin on 7 December 2025 for example, before sunrise, Lieutenant-Colonel Pascal Tigri and a handful of men attacked President Talon’s house. They seized the state TV station and declared the government finished.
However, eight hours later loyal troops smashed the plot with Nigeria sending fighter jets to help. Benin proved a quick, united army can stop a coup. Most countries in the region no longer have that kind of unity.
Meanwhile, beyond the gunfire lies a more complex truth: coups are now rehearsed, modernised and media-aware.
Leaders rush to national broadcasters; soldiers record statements on smartphones; messages are hashtagged in three languages.
In some capitals, a coup attempt resembles an election campaign compressed into a single morning.
Future of democracy in West Africa remains unclear
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have walked away from ECOWAS and built their own club, the Alliance of Sahel States.
They swear to defend each other if anyone tries to remove the junta by force. That promise makes outside intervention nearly impossible.
Elections are promised in every junta country, but the dates keep sliding. In Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traoré is now the most popular leader in local polls. Many fear that even if the soldiers ever leave, the next crisis will just bring the uniforms back.
Expert warns
Dr Ibrahim Balarabe, an international Affairs analyst warn that without credible civilian institutions, independent courts, free media, and functioning legislatures, coups will remain the shortcut of choice.
“Restoring democracy requires more than ballots; it demands governance that benefits those who never meet a president but feel the consequences of their decisions.
“West Africa did not wake up one day loving military rule. People are exhausted by empty promises, endless war, and leaders who get rich while children starve. Until those things change, young officers with rifles will keep thinking they are the answer”, Balarabe said.
Wave not ended but moving farther down coast
A region once defined by liberation movements now risks becoming defined by revolving barracks governments.
The test ahead is whether West Africa can rebuild trust in elections, create economic openings that match its demographic reality, and prove that the ballot, slow, flawed, and complicated remains more powerful than the bullet.