The World Bank has predicted that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.4 percent in 2027, signalling a stronger recovery trajectory compared to the earlier projection of 4.2 percent for 2025.
According to the global financial institution, the improved growth outlook will be largely fuelled by the services sector, with additional support from agriculture and non-oil industries.
Speaking during the launch of the October 2025 edition of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) in Abuja, the World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, Samer Matta, explained that inflation is expected to ease gradually but would remain relatively high in the medium term.
Matta emphasised that sustained monetary discipline and structural reforms are essential to curb rising food prices, describing food inflation as “the harshest form of tax on the poor.”
“Nigeria’s economy continues to show resilience despite global headwinds. The path forward lies in managing inflation and ensuring that growth translates into real welfare improvements for citizens,” he said.
The NDU report, themed “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” offered a cautiously optimistic outlook for Africa’s largest economy.
It revealed that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, up from 3.5 percent in the same period of 2024.
The report attributed the growth to strong performance in the services and non-oil sectors, coupled with modest gains in oil output and agriculture.
It also highlighted an improvement in Nigeria’s external position, with foreign reserves rising above $42 billion and the current account surplus climbing to 6.1 percent of GDP.
On fiscal performance, the report stated that despite weaker global oil prices, Nigeria’s federal deficit is expected to remain stable at 2.6 percent of GDP in 2025, while public debt is projected to fall for the first time in over ten years, from 42.9 percent to 39.8 percent of GDP.
However, the World Bank warned that the macroeconomic progress had yet to reflect in the lives of many Nigerians.
The report noted that poverty and food insecurity remain widespread, with millions of households still struggling to afford basic necessities.
It added that the cost of a basic food basket has surged more than fivefold between 2019 and 2024, leaving low-income families, who spend up to 70 percent of their earnings on food under severe strain.
“Economic reforms must not end at the policy level,” Matta said. “They must be felt in homes, markets, and communities across Nigeria.”
In his remarks, Mathew Verghis, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, commended the government’s reform agenda, noting that efforts to stabilise the economy are beginning to yield results.
“Nigeria has taken bold and necessary steps to restore macroeconomic balance,” Verghis stated. “But stability alone is not enough, the real test of success will be whether these policies lift people out of poverty and create better opportunities for all.”
The World Bank urged Nigerian policymakers to maintain reform momentum, invest in social protection, and enhance agricultural productivity to ensure that economic gains translate into inclusive growth.