In what may go down as the most chaotic pre-election cycle in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, the road to the 2027 presidency is already littered with broken alliances, abandoned party flags, and a rising wave of defections cloaked in the rhetoric of “rescue missions.”
Yet beneath the surface lies a deeper contest not just for power, but for political survival.
From the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the fractured remains of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and from the Labour Party’s (LP) internal strife to the Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) identity struggle, defections have become the most popular manifesto in town.
But no event has rattled the nation’s political order more than the sudden rise of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the new home for Nigeria’s fragmented opposition.
The day ADC became coalition
July 2, 2025, at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, the Nigerian political map quietly redrew itself.
It was there that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Anambra Governor Peter Obi, and a host of other opposition giants announced the formation of a united front to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027. Their chosen vehicle? The ADC.
For a party once dismissed as a fringe player, ADC’s sudden elevation stunned even its loyalists.
Within hours, the party’s founding chairman, Ralph Okey Nwosu, stepped down, making way for an interim leadership headed by former Senate President David Mark, with ex-Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola as the national publicity secretary.
From small party to coalition powerhouse
The appeal of ADC wasn’t accidental. It had the legal status, the national footprint, and crucially, no recent electoral baggage.
With PDP crumbling under internal sabotage and Labour Party imploding from within, ADC offered the coalition a neutral ground.
“The ADC wasn’t our first choice, it was our only viable option,” a senior coalition figure told AFRIPOST off the record.
“We needed a registered party with working structures and minimal drama. ADC ticked the boxes.”
In Kaduna, over 10,000 former Labour Party members, including former leaders and youth coordinators, defected en masse to the ADC.
In Kebbi, Kano, Benue, Plateau, and Cross River, local party offices saw new faces, some welcomed, others resisted.
Friction at roots: ADC’s sudden relevance exposes deep fault lines
Many of the party’s original members view the coalition takeover as a hostile invasion. In a statement issued by state chairmen from Kebbi, Osun, and Benue, the group warned that they would not relinquish their mandates to political heavyweights parachuting in.
“This party was built from scratch,” said Alhaji Usman Jega, ADC chairman in Kebbi State. “Now some people want to use it as a shortcut to power. We welcome new members, not new overlords.”
Legal threats, parallel congresses, and two conflicting national executive committees now threaten to undermine the unity the coalition seeks to project.
PDP: The exodus, the embers
Much of ADC’s new strength has come at the expense of the PDP.
In the past six months alone, at least four PDP governors and dozens of lawmakers have either defected to the APC or joined the ADC-led coalition.
Delta’s Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, led a mass defection to the APC, citing irreconcilable divisions within the PDP.
In Abuja, PDP governors held crisis meetings, desperately trying to stem the tide. Former party chairmen, like Abubakar Baraje, issued statements of optimism. But in truth, the PDP looks more like a ship taking on water than a viable opposition.
El-Rufai and SDP riddle
Amid the swirl of defections, Nasir El-Rufai’s switch to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) stood out.
His move added another layer to Nigeria’s already complex political map.
But even SDP has had its defections, many of its candidates and local officers have crossed into APC, weakening its grassroots appeal despite its national headlines.
Now, aligning with the ADC and categorically saying a new party will soon be formed even after the coalition had chosen ADC as their running vehicle only adds to the riddle of the former Kaduna governor.
Of deceptions and calculations
Despite the flowery press conferences and “people’s mandate” speeches, many Nigerians are not fooled.
“These politicians have no ideology,” said Zainab Akinlabi, a public affairs analyst. “They switch parties not to serve the people but to protect their ambitions. What they call a coalition is just an alliance of survivors.”
Indeed, some within the ADC coalition have already begun to squabble over zoning, consensus candidacy, and campaign funding.
Rumours have also revealed tensions over whether the eventual presidential flag bearer should emerge from the North or the South.
The road ahead
With INEC’s timetable not yet released, the real contest has not begun. But one thing is clear: the 2027 race will be defined less by policies and more by who stands where, and with whom.
The ADC coalition has momentum, but whether it can survive its own contradictions remains to be seen.
The APC remains dominant but risks overconfidence. The PDP is bleeding. The SDP is rebuilding. The LP is entangled in its civil war and the ADC is the new Messiah.
In the end, defections may win you headlines. But whether they win elections or change anything for ordinary Nigerians is another story entirely.