A former Spokesperson of the Nigeria Army and security expert, Sani Usman Kukasheka, has cautioned against rushed negotiations with bandits in Nigeria’s Northwest, warning that premature dialogue could undermine ongoing military operations.
In a detailed analysis of the region’s worsening insecurity, Kukasheka highlighted the staggering number of kidnappings and ransom payments, raising concerns that negotiations might embolden criminal groups rather than bring lasting peace.
Rising Insecurity and Ransom Payments
Kukasheka referenced recent reports showing a sharp increase in kidnappings and killings across the region. According to SBM Intelligence, between July 2023 and June 2024, at least 7,568 individuals were abducted in 1,130 incidents, with victims’ families paying over ₦1.048 billion in ransom. The worst-hit states—Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara—have seen continued attacks despite ongoing security interventions.
A separate report from Beacon Consult and Intelligence Limited revealed a 138.99% increase in abductions nationwide in 2024 compared to the previous year.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) further reported that between May 2023 and April 2024, over 614,937 Nigerians were killed, and 2.2 million kidnapped, with ransom payments exceeding ₦2.2 trillion during the period.
Concerns Over Dialogue with Bandits
Kukasheka noted that recent calls for dialogue with bandits have sparked widespread skepticism, particularly as military operations have put criminal elements under pressure.
He warned that such negotiations could be a tactical move by bandits seeking reprieve, rather than a genuine effort for peace.
“It is not surprising that this sudden push for dialogue is emerging now that security forces are making significant gains. We must critically examine whether this is a sincere effort towards peace or simply a strategy by criminal elements to regroup,” Kukasheka stated.
He recalled past failed amnesty programs, particularly the one led by former Katsina State Governor Aminu Bello Masari, which he said did not lead to meaningful disarmament but instead allowed the cycle of violence to persist.
Divided Opinions Among Governors
Kukasheka also pointed out the divisions among state governments regarding dialogue. While Kaduna and Niger States have engaged in negotiations, leading to some relative peace in areas like Birnin Gwari, other states such as Katsina and Zamfara have rejected the idea, insisting that military action remains the best approach.
He expressed agreement with the Katsina State Governor’s stance, emphasizing that victims and affected communities must be involved in any peace process.
“Dialogue can only be meaningful if bandits are truly remorseful and seek reconciliation, not if it serves as another opportunity for criminal groups to exploit the system,” he said.
The Need for a Comprehensive Approach
Kukasheka stressed that addressing the root causes of banditry—poverty, unemployment, and weak governance—is critical to achieving long-term peace. He advocated for increased investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic empowerment as sustainable solutions.
He also called for a unified and enforceable security strategy, involving all affected states and the federal government, to ensure any dialogue initiative does not undermine military operations.
“As security forces continue to make progress, any peace effort must be carefully structured to ensure it does not embolden the very elements that have terrorized communities for over a decade,” Kukasheka concluded.
